Recently, the IAEA published their Report on Energy Technology 2023. They are analyzing both scenarios, the “Net Zero Emission by 2050” scenario as well as the “Announced Pledges Scenario”. It is one of the few very comprehensive reports about the topic that I have read in recent years looking at a variety of aspects. The most striking image for me was the split of energy sources and their utilization wish I posted below:
Respectively for 2050:
This showcases quite striking what kind of transition will happen in the transportation sector. Over the next 27 years, we are expected to almost fully go from an oil driven transportation industry towards an electric power driven industry. It also makes clear that this will effect all modes of transportation, from cars and trains almost to a full extent to aircrafts at a minimum. Interestingly, they expect that especially for shipping, hydrogen will play an important role.
Given the long replacement cycles, of up to 40 years for railway rolling stock or ships, I am unsure if this is feasible, given that we still invest in new fossil fuel driven solutions. I hope however, that we will made this striking transition, building a more sustainable world for all of us together.